US-Israel Strikes on Iran: Causes, Impact, and Duration of the Conflict

The Middle East is gripped by ongoing conflict following wide-ranging strikes launched by the US and Israel on Iran on February 28, resulting in the death of the country’s Supreme Leader. Iran has retaliated with attacks against Israel and US-allied states in the Gulf, targeting both military and non-military sites, including civilian areas and energy infrastructure. The fighting has rapidly intensified, spreading to Lebanon, with mounting casualties and destruction across all sides. Events in Iran

The initial US and Israeli strikes on February 28 targeted Iran’s missile infrastructure, military sites, and leadership in Tehran and across the country.

• Supreme Leader Killed: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s leader since 1989, was killed in the first wave of strikes. Dozens of senior figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were also reported killed by the Israeli military.
• New Leader and Injury Claims: Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, succeeded him on March 8. On March 13, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Mojtaba Khamenei was “wounded and likely disfigured” in new strikes, a claim dismissed by Tehran.
• Targeting Nuclear and Oil Sites: The US and Israel have continued to target sites linked to Iran’s nuclear programme, which Tehran insists is peaceful, and have ramped up attacks on oil refineries, notably on Kharg Island, Iran’s key economic lifeline.
• Casualties in Iran: The US-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) reported 3,040 fatalities in Iran by March 14, including 1,122 military personnel and 1,319 civilians (206 children). An earlier UN ambassador report on March 6 cited over 1,300 deaths.
• School Strike Allegation: Iran accused the US and Israel of striking a girls’ school near an IRGC base on February 28, killing 168 people, including about 110 children. BBC Verify analysis indicated a US Tomahawk missile hit a nearby military base, leading to questions for Defence Secretary Hegseth.
• Naval Attack: An Iranian warship was sunk by a US submarine in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka on March 4, killing at least 87 people.
• Information Blackout: Access for international journalists is limited, and internet connectivity within Iran is largely restricted.

Iran’s Retaliation

Iran condemned the US and Israeli strikes as “unprovoked, illegal and illegitimate” and launched widespread missile and drone attacks in response.

• Strikes on Israel: The IRGC claimed to target Israeli government and military sites. As of March 15, Israeli authorities reported 12 civilian deaths from missile fire, with the deadliest strike in Beit Shemesh (nine killed) on March 1.
• Attacks on US-Allies in the Gulf: Strikes have hit countries hosting US bases—Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the UAE, and Kuwait—along with Oman and Saudi Arabia. At least 18 people (mostly security or foreign workers) have been killed across the Gulf, including six in the UAE and six in Kuwait.
• Strikes on Iraq: Explosions were reported at Erbil airport on March 6. A French soldier was killed by a drone at a Kurdish military base. The Iran-supported Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) reported 27 members killed.
• Other Targets: Iran has been accused of targeting oil facilities, shipping, and civilian sites like hotels in Dubai. Turkey’s Nato air defences shot down three Iranian missiles, and Azerbaijan accused Iran of a drone attack on an airport.
• Condemnation and Appeal: The US and its Arab allies issued a joint statement condemning Iran’s attacks on civilians and non-combatant nations. Hamas, a key Iranian ally, made a rare appeal for Iran to stop attacking Gulf states on March 14.
• Iranian Apology: On March 7, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to neighbouring countries, stating Iran did not intend to invade and had ordered the military to refrain from attacking unless attacked first.

Escalation in Lebanon

A new front opened in Lebanon on March 2 when the Iran-backed group Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli positions, citing vengeance for Khamenei’s death.

• Israeli Response: Israel responded by striking Beirut and southern Lebanon. Defence Minister Israel Katz stated on March 3 that ground troops would “advance and seize additional strategic areas in Lebanon.”
• Targets and Casualties: Israel has regularly struck southern Lebanon and Beirut’s Dahieh suburb, targeting Hezbollah command centres and weapons storage. Attacks have also hit central Beirut. As of March 14, Lebanon’s health ministry reported 826 deaths, including 106 children. The UN reported over 700,000 displaced people.
• Israeli Military Losses: Israel reported two soldiers killed as of March 8.

Rationale for the US and Israeli Attack

The attack was preceded by months of strategic deception by the IDF, catching Iran off guard.

• Pre-emptive Strike: Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz called the February 28 strikes a “pre-emptive strike” to “remove threats.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US had to act “pre-emptively” to counter expected Iranian attacks on American forces.
• Underlying Tensions: The US and Israel have been arch-foes of Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution. They oppose Iran’s nuclear programme, which they claim is for military purposes, and desire regime change in Iran.
• Failed Negotiations: The US and Israel had previously attacked Iranian nuclear and military sites in June 2025. Following a security crackdown in Iran, negotiations began but broke down on February 27, just hours before the attack, after President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the talks. On March 6, Trump demanded “unconditional surrender” for any deal.

Economic and Energy Impact

The conflict has destabilized the global economy, primarily by impacting energy supplies.

• Strait of Hormuz: Iran has been accused of attacks, forcing the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the transit point for about 20% of global oil and gas.
• Oil and Gas Production Halt: Attacks on major hubs like Oman’s Duqm and the UAE’s Fujairah terminal, as well as strikes forcing production suspension at facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, have caused supply disruption.
• Price Surge: Oil and gas prices have surged, with oil reaching nearly $120 a barrel on March 9. The US president has threatened to hit Iran “20 times harder” if it blocks the Strait.
• Shipping Incidents: Multiple cargo ships have been hit by “unknown projectiles” in the Strait, and two foreign fuel tankers were struck near the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr, killing one person.

Duration of the War and Travel Safety

Statements from US and Israeli leaders offer varying predictions on the war’s length.

• US Predictions: President Trump stated on March 9 that the war “is very complete, pretty much,” but later suggested the US would “go further” and was “very close to finishing” the “excursion.” He set the goal of preventing Iran from developing weaponry for a “very long time.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had earlier suggested the war could last up to six weeks.
• Israeli Stance: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the campaign would “continue as long as it is needed.”

Travel Disruption: Airspace closures and flight groundings have severely disrupted travel across the Middle East. Some airlines, like Etihad and Emirates, have resumed limited operations following the partial reopening of regional airspace. The UK Foreign Office advises travellers to check its website for destination-specific advice.